Independent Investment Research · Ghana & Africa
FlowWealth Research
Independent analysis of economies, markets, companies and investment themes across Ghana, Africa and the global economy.
Disinflation has given the Bank of Ghana room to ease, and the market has already priced a substantial part of it. We examine how far the cycle can plausibly run, why the pass-through to deposit rates will lag, and what a lower nominal rate environment means for savers holding short-dated Treasury bills.
The dominant risk in Ghanaian fixed income has shifted. After the domestic debt exchange, investors spent two years focused on credit. The binding question now is what maturing short-dated paper can be reinvested into, and whether the real return on that reinvestment is positive.
The cedi's stabilisation has rested on improved reserve cover and strong gold receipts rather than on a structural change in the external position. We examine what would have to hold for stability to persist, and why a narrowing interest rate differential is the channel most likely to test it.
Listed Ghanaian banks have reported a strong earnings recovery. We examine how much of it reflects durable improvement in the lending business and how much reflects the exceptional contribution of government securities holdings, and what an easing cycle does to both.
Ghana has stabilised. Inflation is falling, the currency has held, and reserve cover has improved. We examine why stabilisation and structural reform are different achievements, which of the underlying vulnerabilities remain intact, and what would signal genuine progress rather than a favourable cycle.
Treating Africa as a single allocation decision has always been analytically lazy; in the current cycle it is actively misleading. We examine why the dispersion between African markets has widened, which variables explain it, and what that means for investors making country-level decisions.
The FlowWealth Brief
A weekly brief covering Ghanaian, African and global markets: one chart worth understanding, one investment concept explained, and FlowWealth’s view on what changed.